Методика оптимізації програмно-цільового управління економічним розвитком регіону

Abstract

Розглянуто організаційно-методичні аспекти проблеми удосконалення програмно-цільового бюджетування регіональних програм розвитку. Розроблено методичні положення для обґрунтування оптимальних стратегій економічного розвитку регіону на підставі динамічної моделі оптимізації розподілу бюджетних коштів між сукупністю регіональних програм у контексті досяжності їх цілей. Здійснено формалізацію базових процедур запропонованої методики. Наведено результати апробації окремих процедур методики під час оцінювання ефекту використання коштів проектами Середньострокової інвестиційної програми Львівської області протягом 2005-2011 рр. Ключові слова: економіка України, економічний розвиток, програмно-цільове управління, державні цільові програми, регіон, оптимізація, функціональний аналіз, динамічна модель, програми Львівщини

Organizational-methodical aspects of a problem of improvement of program-oriented budgeting of regional prog¬rams of development are considered. Based on the analysis of existing approaches and methodologies of estimation of efficiency of use of budgetary funds allocated for the implementation of state programs in Ukraine the need to improve their distribution between the regional programs is identified. The main drawback of the existing methods of budgeting of state programs in Ukraine is identified as the lack of procedures for quantitative evaluation of the likely impact of highlighted funds for the implementation to achieve their goals.It is proposed to optimize the distribution of budgetary funds between the set of regional development programs with the help of the dynamic matrix-integrated model built on the base of optimal control theory by autonomous multi-dimensional linear objects. The criterion of optimization in proposed dynamic model - is the minimization of budgetary funds for the realization of the set targets regional programs in the context of achieving their goals. As basic limitations of the dynamic model the total volume of budgetary funds and the desired state of the region, in which it goes after performing all the programs are used. Goals for realization regional programs the aggregate, which define the point of the development of the region are set by multidimensional vectors which coordinates define the desired values of selected socio-economic indicators of estimation of the condition in the region at the end of the period of management. The methodology of substantiation of optimal management decisions on the distribution of budgetary funds between the regional programs with the use of complex economic and mathematical models for realization dynamic matrix-integrated model that provides the best achievement of regional development goals are described. The sequence of the performance of the procedures methods, depending on the limitations of the dynamic model is displayed with the help of unit block diagrams. The results of approbation of procedures methods on real data about the implementation of projects medium-term investment program of Lviv region are being discussed. One hundred and one projects of this program, that were realized during the 2005-2011 years, have been integrated into the 5 generalized investment regional programs are discussed. One hundred and one project of this program which was realized during 2005-2011, have been integrated into 5 generalized investment regionnal programs. In order to identify the state of the Lviv region 18 of the most relevant of regional development indicators, from which 12 evaluated the economic aspect of development, and 6 - social were selected. The average annual growth rate values for selected socio-economic indicators for the 2005 year (coefficients of the diagonal matrix A models) and transitional matrix Φ (τ) for the years from 2005 to 2010 are determined. To evaluate the quality of the dynamic matrix-integrated models retrospective forecasts of probable conditions in Lviv region in the time interval 2005-2010 years were made, taking into account the actually allocated volumes of funds for implementation of the 5 generalized invest¬ment programs. Comparison of forecasted and actual dynamic rows values of 18 selected socio-economic indicators testified the feasibility of application of the proposed methodology in the conditions of the fairly stable market environment (in the absence of financial and economic crises on the control interval). Keywords: Ukraine's economy, economic development, program-targeted management, state target program, the region, optimization, functional analysis, dynamic model, Lviv region program.