Сценарне управління майбутнім як метод конструювання ментального простору в міжнародних відносинах

Abstract

У статті розглянуто сценарний метод конструювання реальності, яка редукована до поняття ментального простору індивіда. Ця стаття є практичним застосуванням синергетичної моделі конструювання ментального простору в міжнародних відносинах. Сутність моделі полягає у механізмах впливу на складну динамічну систему міжнародного середовища за допомогою малих резонансних впливів та створення атрактивних структур. В якості прикладу розглянуто кейс: воєнний напад Росії на Україну як точка біфуркації у структурі взаємовідносин цих країн та малий резонансний вплив на вибір сценарію війни.

The article discusses the scenario method of constructing reality, which is reduced to the concept of the individual’s mental space. This article is a practical application of the synergistic model of mental space construction in international relations. The essence of the model lies in the mechanisms of influence on the complex dynamic system of the international environment with the help of small resonant influences and the creation of attractive structures. As an example, a case was considered: Russia’s military attack on Ukraine as a point of bifurcation in the structure of relations between these countries and a small resonant influence on the choice of the war scenario. In this article, an approach is made from the point of view of classical constructivism, which makes it possible to consider international relations as construction by agents. The analysis is made on the example of a case: the beginning of the war between Ukraine and Russia on February 24, 2022 from the point of view of discourse analysis. The scenario management method in the synergistic model of mental space construction makes it possible to find points for resonant influence on an open complex system. This management shapes the image of the future, fixing it as an attractor for a complex open system of international relations. In particular, this was demonstrated by the example of V. Putin’s speech when he announced a «special military operation» on February 24, 2022. What is seen as an attempt to introduce a discourse into the relationship between Ukraine and Russia, which would affect the course of hostilities in the interests of the agent. Such a small resonant impact on society at the bifurcation point was intended to provoke the course of the military invasion according to the given scenario. In general, this case well illustrates the constructivist paradigm of N. Onuf, when «we construct the world, the world constructs us.»