Статистичне прогнозування міграційного руху населення Закарпатської області

Abstract

У статті проаналізовано динаміку міграційного руху населення Закарпатської області. Розглянуто методологічні питання застосування лінійної регресійної моделі та екстраполяційних методів для прогнозування демографічних параметрів регіону, наведені алгоритми та результати розрахунку інтервальних прогнозних оцінок загальної, міжрегіональної і міждержавної міграцій населення по містах і районах Закарпаття. Ключові слова: міграція, прогнозування, лінійна регресія, екстраполяція, лінія тренду.

In modern conditions, migration plays an ambitious role in the development of the countries, appearing as a precondition and consequence of socio-economic changes and the formation of new means of growth factors. The study of migration problems are topical and necessary means of developing and implementing a balanced migration policy, both in the individual region and in the country as a whole. To investigate multidimensional accidental objects, which include migration, well-developed mathematical tools of statistical analyses, and such methods as regression and correlation analysis, single and multivariate analysis of variance, and extrapolation methods are appropriate for use. In the article, the dynamics of migration movement of population of Transcarpathian region are analyzed. It is found that, the change in population of Transcarpathia is due to an external migration, the components of which are inter-regional and interstate exchange. The methodological questions of the simultaneous use of several statistical methods to the same set of data (linear regression model and extrapolation) for predicting demographic parameters of the region are considered. The article dwells on the algorithms and results of calculation of the interval prognostication rates of total, interregional and interstate migration of the population in the towns and districts of Transcarpathia. According to the forecast of the total migration based on linear regression model in nearly all districts the number of departures will continue to prevail over the number of arrivals. With the help of the graphical method net migration dynamics with further drawing trend lines that graphically show the performance prospects of the migration is built. The equation trends for predicting general and interstate migration population shows that the dynamics tends to decrease. The greatest value of reliability for these metrics for polynomial is 2nd order. Calculations of migration movement of population with the aid of statistical package MS Excel are realized. The approach offered in this work provides scientific validity of made decisions at the estimation of influencing of migration of population in the region. Keywords: migration, prognostication, linear regression, extrapolation, line of trend.