Регіональна cтійкість у Центральній Європі після президентства Трампа, Brexit та Соvid-19

Abstract

У статті визначено змінні, які у короткостроковій перспективі впливати муть на національну стійкість України та відповідний стан Центральної Європи у зв’язку із внутрішньополітичною та міжнародною трансформацією у / і навко ло США, Великої Британії/ЄС та пост-COVID-19. Зокрема систематизовано фактори, які сприяють досягненню регіональної стійкості у період кардинальної трансформації міжнародного середовища щодо центральноєвропейського регіо ну або ж відіграють дезінтеграційну роль у формуванні центральноєвропейської єдності із «зовнішнім» світом; визначено значення «українського питання» для формування порядку денного забезпечення стійкості країн Центральної Європи. Ключові слова: стійкість, безпека, Україна, Центральна Європа, Європей ський Союз, COVID-19, інтеграція, дезінтеграція.

The author’s goal is to identify variables that will affect Ukraine’s national resi lence and the corresponding state of Central Europe (to which it, from a constructivist point of view, Ukraine should gravitate) under the influence of domestic and interna tional transformation in / around the US, UK / EU and post-COVID 19 situation. In particular, the factors that contribute to the achievement of regional stability in the period of radical changes in the international environment in relation to the Central European region will be systematized, as well as those that play a disintegrating role in the formation of Central European unity with the «outside» world. The last task is define as to to determine the significance of the «Ukrainian question» for the formation of the agenda of ensuring the stability of Central European countries. In recent years, the concept of resilence has begun to be used as a dimension of European Union policy, which is forced to respond to a number of challenges that call into question even the feasibility of its existence as a system. Resilence in international relations, like the societal dimension, is perceived as a state of self-organization, adap tation, transformation and survival in times of trouble or crisis. The Central European region in the context of this publication is defined as the area of countries which, in addition to the border location of Central, South-Eastern Europe, the Baltics (by geographical criteria), also have a common historical past as sociated with being in a socialist camp in the postwar period. Therefore, there is still a similar trajectory of development in the phase of being a member of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. However, special emphasis will be placed on the regional stability of the Visegrad Four countries (Czech and Slovak Republics, Republic of Poland, Hungary), which have some experience of cooperation with Ukraine in the «Plus» format and can potentially use it as an institutional plat form to develop a common position It is concluded that Central Europe, of which Ukraine is an integral part, received unpredictable opportunities in 2021 to strengthen regional stability, in particular by restarting relations dominated by conflict potential, reducing the role of populism, and Russian disinformation. The COVID 19 challenge, domestic policy changes in the Unit ed States, and Britain’s new international position have strengthened the potential for positive cooperation between Central European states and societies, which, if applied creatively, can create a breakthrough and undoubtedly strengthen regional resilience. Кeywords: resilence, security, Ukraine. Central Europe, the European Union, COVID-19, integration, disintegration.