Analysis of existing models of climate change and identification of zones which are suitable for agricultural production in the context of rural territories

Abstract

The object of research is the methodology of existing models of climate change and the identification of areas that are suitable for agricultural production.The consequences of natural disasters (floods, tornadoes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions etc.) are the destruction of local ecosystems and the local economy, the emergence of threats to food and water supply, the creation of social conflicts, internal and external migration. Damage from natural disasters is estimated at billions of dollars. The economies of countries in which natural disasters are being synchronized cannot recover on their own and need international assistance, especially the placement of climate refugees in other countries. An analysis of recent research and publications shows that its authors do not even pose such a problem. In the period from 2011 to 2020 alone, the number of natural disasters in the world increased 7 times, in particular in Europe – 41 times.The study shows that the concept of anthropogenic impact on climate change, sustainable development and possible adaptation through environmental and energy and resource conservation measures must be considered erroneous. International spending on climate change adaptation programs around the world is inefficient. The theoretical basis on which these concepts have been built so far needs to be revised, and the environmental policy of all countries of the world is subject to radical transformation.The practical significance of research is to improve the model of climate change, which is used to develop fore­cast scenarios for world events, based on the dependence of CO2 emissions. from anthropogenic human activity. Since the results of any mathematical model depend on the input data and the correlation of the relationships embedded in such a model, the percentage of reliability and probability of implementation of such a model is also estimated. Therefore, climate models developed at the initiative of the International Group of Experts on Climate Change cannot be used as a basis for substantiating recommendations for the transformation of agriculture in accordance with climate change.