Моделирование влияния секторов экономики на ВВП национальной экономики Республики Конго (Браззавиль)

Abstract

В статье исследовано современное состояние и динамика развития национальной экономики Республики Конго (столица Браззавиль). Проанализирована динамика изменения валового внутреннего продукта экономики Республики Конго по секторам экономики. На основе проведенного анализа сделан вывод о замедлении темпов роста ВВП в стоимостном выражении за исследуемый период 2014–2018 гг. на 15,87% и снижении ВВП на душу населения на 23,99%. Исследована динамика ВВП Республики Конго в разрезе секторов экономики. Установлено, что доля секторов экономики в производстве ВВП не одинакова: по данным 2018 г., доля первичного сектора составила 6,99%, вторичного – 50,07%, третичного – 36,67% и сектора налогов – 6,27%. Установлено, что значительное снижение объема ВВП за счет вторичного сектора вызвано падением добычи углеводородов за тот же период времени на 9,36% из-за снижения мировых цен на нефть на 25,94%. Установлено, что наибольшее влияние на объем ВВП страны имеет вторичный сектор экономики (77,82%), который связан с добычей углеводородов, что составляет 95% экспорта.

The article examines the current state and dynamics of development of the national economy of the Republic of Congo (capital Brazzaville). The dynamics of changes in the gross domestic product of the economy of the Republic of the Congo by sectors of the economy is analyzed. Based on the analysis, it was concluded that the GDP growth rate in value terms was slowing down for the period under study in 2014–2018. by 15.87% and a decrease in GDP per capita by 23.99%. The dynamics of the GDP of the Republic of the Congo in the context of the sectors of the economy is studied It was found that the share of economic sectors in GDP production is not the same: according to 2018, the share of the primary sector was 6.99%, the secondary sector – 50.07%, the tertiary sector – 36.67%, and the tax sector – 6.27%. It has been established that a significant decrease in the volume of GDP due to the secondary sector is caused by a drop in hydrocarbon production over the same period of time by 9.36% due to a drop in world oil prices by 25.94%. According to the results of the calculations, it was established that the following pairs of variables: GDP and primary sector; GDP and secondary sector; GDP and tertiary sector; GDP and taxes have statistically significant non-zero correlations with a 95.0% probability. The degree of influence of the sectors of the economy on the GDP of the national economy of the Republic of the Congo was calculated: the primary sector – 28.85%, the secondary sector – 77.82%, the tertiary sector – 56.11%, the “taxes” economic sector – 64.14%. It was found that the secondary sector of the economy, which is associated with the extraction of hydrocarbons, has the greatest influence on the country’s GDP, which accounts for 95% of exports. It has been established that the volume of oil production depends on fluctuations in the level of world oil prices. The following relationship has been established: a decrease in oil production leads to a decrease in the GDP of the Republic of the Congo. In order to increase the level of economic security of the national economy of the Republic of the Congo, it was recommended to expand the country’s export items from the raw materials spectrum to oil refined products and invest in the long-term development of the country’s infrastructure. For the further development of the economy of the Republic of the Congo, it is recommended to use the experience of economic development of advanced developed countries and Ukraine.