Оцінка інвестиційної діяльності регіонів на основі когнітивного підходу

Abstract

Статтю присвячено розробленню нового підходу до оцінки ефективності інвестицій на регіональному рівні. Окреслено вимоги до концепції оцінки ефективності інвестицій на регіональному рівні. Сформовано основні етапи методики визначення ефективності регіональних інвестицій. Відповідно до цих етапів, проведено визначення найбільш впливових чинників, вибір яких виконувався засобами статистичного аналізу. Проілюстровано вплив кожного типу інвестицій на основні макроекономічні показники регіону. Обґрунтовано застосування когнітивної карти для відображення зв’язку між обсягами інвестування за типами та основними макроекономічними показниками. Виконано побудову когнітивної карти знакового типу. Відзначено алгоритм та особливості застосування представленої когнітивної карти. Окреслено перспективи та подальші кроки проведення досліджень у цьому напрямі.

The article is devoted to a topical issue - the assessment of investment efficiency at the regional level. The article aims to develop a new concept for evaluating the effectiveness of investments at the regional level. In order to develop a new methodology for assessing the effectiveness of investment at the regional level, the authors identified a number of requirements for the new methodology, which are characterized by the specifics of investment processes at the regional level. In accordance with the requirements, the concept of performance evaluation at the regional level is planned, which includes three main stages: Stage 1. Analysis of investment activities of regions; Stage 2. Evaluation of the efficiency of investment activities of the regions; Stage 3. Optimization of investment distribution at the regional level. The paper also selects the factors for assessing the effectiveness of investments at the regional level. As a result of an analytical review of the scientific literature to assess the effectiveness of investment at the regional level, it was found that the general list of factors used is quite wide, but researchers often use only a small number of them. This position is due, on the one hand, to sufficiently sound arguments in favor of the use of a particular group of factors, and on the other hand, the limited mathematical apparatus that researchers use to achieve their goals. The paper identifies a number of factors according to the main macroeconomic indicators of regional development and the main types of investment in regional development. It is hypothesized that the volumes of regional investments by the types presented have a strong statistical connection with the indicators of regional development, which may be a prerequisite for assessing the effectiveness of regional investments using this group of indicators. Correlation analysis established the relationship between these factors, resulting in a number of the most influential. It is noted that the purpose of correlation analysis was to establish the existence of a statistical relationship between the factors, but to assess the strength of this relationship and determine the extent to which the region's GVA is affected by a particular type of investment through correlation is not possible. To this end, the use of cognitive analysis is necessary. The paper presents an iconic cognitive map where the cognitive connections between the main concepts - investments by types and indicators of the region. According to the established statistical connections between the concepts of the conceptual sphere of investment activity of the region, the cognitive connections between the concepts in the form of arcs were reflected. It is noted that the proposed cognitive map is designed specifically for the territories of Ukraine, taking into account the existing investment policy. When using this approach for other states, first of all, the statistical relationships between concepts should be analyzed, which, in turn, can radically replace the cognitive map scheme. Thus, this study proposes a new approach to determining the effectiveness of investment activities in the region based on a cognitive approach.