Priorities for the Strategic Development of Ukraine's Cybersecurity Based on the Analysis of Expert Sampling Patterns

Abstract

The study is devoted to assessing the risks of cyber threats in the future based on expert sampling patterns. One of the key problems of modern cybersecurity is the dynamic nature of threats that change under the influence of technological progress and socio-economic factors. In this context, the authors consider a methodological approach that involves the use of a multi-level analysis of expert opinions. The main emphasis is placed on taking into account the different points of view, experience and professional activities of experts from the public, private and academic sectors. An important stage of the study is the procedure of data cleaning to form a representative sample that takes into account only logically consistent responses of experts. The paper focuses on the integration of the expert sample patterns‘ features. The key differences in threat assessments between different groups of experts depending on their professional role and experience are identified. This made it possible to formulate comprehensive recommendations for strategic cyber risk management focused on both short-term and long-term priorities. The study makes a significant contribution to understanding the peculiarities of cyber risk assessment through the use of multivariate analysis of expert opinions. The proposed methodology allows not only to improve the quality of forecasts of future cyber threats, but also contributes to the creation of adaptive cybersecurity strategies that take into account the specifics of each sector. The findings of the study emphasize the importance of a multidimensional approach to analyzing cyber threats, taking into account the specifics of each expert group. Integration of assessments and consideration of local peculiarities are key to the development of adaptive and effective cyber defense strategies focused on global and local challenges.