Analysis of Macroeconomic Risks During War: The Role of Financial Institutions and State Policy Under Conditions of Incomplete Data

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of Ukraine’s macroeconomic risks during wartime and the role of financial institutions in stabilizing the economy. It examines key challenges such as the destabilization of the financial system, rising public debt, the shadow economy, inflationary risks, export decline, and cyber threats. The main directions of state policy aimed at reducing macroeconomic instability are identified, including support for fiscal discipline, attraction of international financial aid, and expansion of cybersecurity mechanisms. The article analyzes the dynamics of key indicators — inflation, foreign exchange interventions, debt burden, budget deficit, external and internal borrowings — based on official statistical data for the period 2015–2025. Special attention is paid to shadow economic processes that have intensified due to weakened fiscal control, rising unemployment, and loss of state regulation in certain sectors. The study outlines the key response strategies of the government and financial system to crisis phenomena, including monetary policy adaptation, currency interventions, international aid, financial sector digitalization, combating the shadow economy, and implementation of cybersecurity. Strategic approaches to strengthening economic security and stimulating economic growth are proposed.