CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREAT MULTIPLIER: ASSESSING ITS IMPACT ON RESOURCE SCARCITY, MIGRATION, AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY

Abstract

This article examines the conceptualization and application of climate change as a "threat multiplier" in global security discourse. Originating within the U.S. national security community, the term describes how the physical impacts of climate change interact with and exacerbate pre-existing social, economic, and political vulnerabilities, thereby multiplying threats to peace and stability. While the framework has been instrumental in placing climate change on the security agenda, it is also critiqued for potentially constraining policy responses to a reactive, management-oriented posture rather than promoting transformative change. This study employs a qualitative, comparative case study methodology to deconstruct the threat multiplier effect through its cascading impacts. It first analyzes the first-order impact of climate change on critical resources, with a focus on water stress in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. It then investigates the second-order human consequence of climate-induced migration, examining patterns in the Sahel, Bangladesh, and Central America, and highlighting the profound legal and geopolitical challenges posed by the lack of international protection for "climate refugees." Finally, through in-depth case studies of Syria and Sudan, the article analyzes how these combined pressures can culminate in the third-order outcome of political instability and violent conflict. The analysis reveals that governance is the critical mediating variable determining whether climate stress leads to instability. The article concludes by assessing the policy responses of the United Nations, European Union, and the United States, identifying key gaps, and advocating for an integrated policy framework that merges climate adaptation, development, and peacebuilding to address the multifaceted nature of climate-related security risks.