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Title: | Modeling migration changing according to alternative scenarios in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic: the example of Ukraine |
Other Titles: | Modeling migration changing according to alternative scenarios in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic: the example of Ukraine |
Authors: | Брітченко, Ігор Геннадійович Maslii, Natalia Demianchuk, Maryna Britchenko, Igor Bezpartochnyi, Maksym |
Keywords: | migration, migration movement, migration increase, emigrants, immigrants, multivariate econometric model, cenarios, Covid-19 |
Issue Date: | Jan-2022 |
Publisher: | Институт за икономически изследвания при БАН, София (България) |
Citation: | Britchenko I. Modeling migration changing according to alternative scenarios in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic: the example of Ukraine/Natalia Maslii, Maryna Demianchuk, Igor Britchenko, Maksym Bezpartochnyi//Списание «Икономически изследвания (Economic Studies)». – Институт за икономически изследвания при БАН, София (България). – № 1. – 2022. – P. 58 - 71. |
Abstract: | Global processes significantly affect the mobility of the population. In the context of geopolitical transformation, globalization and quarantine restrictions of Covid-19, it is important to predict the development of the migration movement of countries that are developing. Therefore, the article is aimed at modelling migration changes according to alternative scenarios using the example of Ukraine. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is formed by a number of scientific works of leading scientists from different countries, statistical information on migration processes and socio-economic indicators of Ukraine’s development, economic, mathematical and scenario methods. In the course of the study, the main factors were identified that more affect the migration processes of Ukraine, taking into account the trends in the impact of Covid-19 on them. These include population size, life expectancy, GDP per capita, average monthly wages, and the volume of remittances from individuals to Ukraine. With the help of correlation-regression analysis, a multivariate econometric model of migration growth (reduction) has been built. This made it possible to study the absolute and relative influence of factors on the magnitude of the migration increase (decrease), determine the potential reserves for its increase (decrease), evaluate them using a comparative analysis and carry out predictive calculations of the volume of migration increase (decrease) in Ukraine. |
Description: | Global processes significantly affect the mobility of the population. In the context of geopolitical transformation, globalization and quarantine restrictions of Covid-19, it is important to predict the development of the migration movement of countries that are developing. Therefore, the article is aimed at modelling migration changes according to alternative scenarios using the example of Ukraine. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is formed by a number of scientific works of leading scientists from different countries, statistical information on migration processes and socio-economic indicators of Ukraine’s development, economic, mathematical and scenario methods. In the course of the study, the main factors were identified that more affect the migration processes of Ukraine, taking into account the trends in the impact of Covid-19 on them. These include population size, life expectancy, GDP per capita, average monthly wages, and the volume of remittances from individuals to Ukraine. With the help of correlation-regression analysis, a multivariate econometric model of migration growth (reduction) has been built. This made it possible to study the absolute and relative influence of factors on the magnitude of the migration increase (decrease), determine the potential reserves for its increase (decrease), evaluate them using a comparative analysis and carry out predictive calculations of the volume of migration increase (decrease) in Ukraine. |
Type: | Text |
Publication type: | Стаття |
URI: | https://dspace.uzhnu.edu.ua/jspui/handle/lib/39025 |
ISSN: | 02053292 |
Appears in Collections: | Наукові публікації кафедри фінансів і банківської справи |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Modeling migration changing according.pdf | стаття | 306.41 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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